My Car Quest

July 26, 2014

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

by Mike –

The fascinating book, “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”, was written by the Scottish journalist Charles Mackay in 1841. It is still highly regarded by scholars today and is a mesmerizing tale of human behavior worth reading.

Here are some interesting passages that I have edited for brevity. The bold emphasis are all mine.

Text by Charles Mackay

Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

Pink-Tulips-Flowers

The tulip was introduced into western Europe about the middle of the sixteenth century. The bulbs came from Constantinople, where the flower had long been a favourite. In the course of ten or eleven years after this period, tulips were much sought after by the wealthy.

Rich people sent for the bulbs direct to Constantinople, and paid the most extravagant prices for them. Until the year 1634 the tulip annually increased in reputation, until it was deemed a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a collection of them.

Many learned men were passionately fond of tulips. The rage for possessing them soon caught the middle classes of society, and merchants and shopkeepers, even of moderate means, began to vie with each other in the rarity of these flowers and the preposterous prices they paid for them.

A trader was known to pay one-half of his fortune for a single root, not with the design of selling it again at a profit, but to keep in his own conservatory for the admiration of his acquaintance.

The demand for tulips of a rare species increased so much in the year 1636, that regular marts for their sale were established on the Stock Exchanges. Symptoms of gambling now became, for the first time, apparent.

The stock-jobbers, ever on the alert for a new speculation, dealt largely in tulips, making use of all the means they so well knew how to employ, to cause fluctuations in prices.

At first, as in all these gambling mania, confidence was at its height, and every body gained. The tulip-jobbers speculated in the rise and fall of the tulip stocks, and made large profits by buying when prices fell, and selling out when they rose. Many individuals grew suddenly rich.

A golden bait hung temptingly out before the people, and, one after the other, they rushed to the tulip marts, like flies around a honey-pot. Every one imagined that the passion for tulips would last for ever, and that the wealthy from every part of the world would pay whatever prices were asked for them.

We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.

Nobles, citizens, farmers, mechanics … dabbled in tulips. People of all grades converted their property into cash, and invested it in flowers. Houses and lands were offered for sale at ruinously low prices, or assigned in payment of bargains made at the tulip-mart.

The prices of the necessaries of life rose again by degrees: houses and lands, horses and carriages, and luxuries of every sort, rose in value with them. The operations of the trade became so extensive and so intricate, that it was found necessary to draw up a code of laws for the guidance of the dealers. Notaries and clerks were also appointed, who devoted themselves exclusively to the interests of the trade.

Of all the offspring of Time, Error is the most ancient, and is so old and familiar an acquaintance, that Truth, when discovered, comes upon most of us like an intruder, and meets the intruder’s welcome.

At last, however, the more prudent began to see that this folly could not last for ever. Rich people no longer bought the flowers to keep them in their gardens, but to sell them again at cent per cent profit. It was seen that somebody must lose fearfully in the end.

As this conviction spread, prices fell, and never rose again. Confidence was destroyed, and a universal panic seized upon the dealers.

Defaulters were announced day after day in all the towns. Hundreds who, a few months previously, had begun to doubt that there was such a thing as poverty in the land, suddenly found themselves the possessors of a few bulbs, which nobody would buy, even though they offered them at one quarter of the sums they had paid for them.

Many who, for a brief season, had emerged from the humbler walks of life, were cast back into their original obscurity. Substantial merchants were reduced almost to beggary, and many a representative of a noble line saw the fortunes of his house ruined beyond redemption.

~~~

The book is in the public domain and is available here Extraordinary Popular Delusions.

tulip_flower

Summary
Article Name
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Author
Description
Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

Comments

  1. Beautiful.
    Simply, concisely and beautifully (understated) synopsis of the human condition.

  2. Mike Miles says:

    Alfred Loomis was an attorney, financier, broker, and amateur physicist. A brilliant man, though he had his feet of clay. Prior to the crash of 1929 he recognized a change in the attitudes of investors and was wise enough to withdraw much of his portfolio. So much so that many suspected him of somehow masterminding the crash to his benefit. His observation was simply – when people stopped asking IF there was going to be a crash, and started asking WHEN is there going to be a crash – he knew it would happen and pulled out.

    An excellent book about him (and not totally flattering) is called “Tuxedo Park”. Amazing man and visionary who had a huge impact on World War II, radar, and the roots of Silicon Valley.

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