Today our resident futurist takes a bleak view of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) impact on us and the car world over the next year or so.
Read how to protect yourself, your family and friends from the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention at the end of this post.
Let’s be safe out there while still finding a way to live life and have fun.
Mike Gulett, Publisher
by Wallace Wyss –
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) is uncontrolled and there is no cure. Every facet of consumer spending is being affected. Here’s my predictions as to the future of the car market in the next 12 months, new and used, if the virus spreads unchecked:
1. Production of all new cars will drop, with a corresponding sales drop. In China alone as the disease kills over 50,000, sales will drop over 90%.
2. Introduction of some new cars will be delayed, maybe even model years skipped, because automakers will not want a bad sales year for a model to be blamed on the car and not the disappearance of buyers.
3. Ultimate limited edition cars will sell out in small editions-12 cars here, 25 there. But middle of the road luxury car sales will drop.
4. Certain brands that depend on prestige will die if they were already only breaking even.
5. Used cars at dealerships will have to be certified as clean of virus before they can go on a used car lot.
6. Private sales of used cars will be forbidden unless the seller, can provide a “virus-free” certificate. Though one expert told me “The COVID-19 likely only stays virulent for less than 24 hours on a surface, worst case a week. There will be no need for “virus free certificates”.
7. Bulletproof options will be sold on Land Rovers, Bentleys, Rolls Royces and Escalades because the diseased rabble might direct their anger at owners of luxury cars who seem to be disease free.
8. The value of collector cars will drop precipitously as the excitement of auctions like Barrett Jackson and Mecum et al will no longer be around to pump them up.
9. Ad agencies will close, no longer being paid to develop ads. Newspapers will fold as there will be no dealer ads.
10. All car races will be cancelled, racetracks will close, the high performance race shops will close, all the sellers of hi-performance accessories will go bankrupt.
11. The business that will really suffer is the airlines. Folks will rethink just how much they want to fly in general. Lots of airlines are shaky now and therefore we can expect a round of mergers and bankruptcies.
12. More collector cars will be for sale. A lot of owners that have a project car up on blocks because the guy they were going to have do the engine or other work died, moved away etc… and now with his wife, or relatives or neighbors with the virus they want to dump all the toys and leave that project for a younger man. So there will be a sudden spurt of project cars for sale.
Is that enough bad news? How about good news? The roads are clearer. Keep the pedal to the metal, gas prices are falling…
Let us know what you think in the Comments.
THE AUTHOR: Wallace Wyss is the co-host of Autotalk, broadcasted weekly from KUCR-FM Riverside, California.
Learn more about the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) at the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention-click here.
Here are some recommendations from experts:
To prevent the spread of this illness or other illnesses, including the flu:
* Wash your hands often with soap and water,
* Cover your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze,
* Stay home when you’re sick, and
* See your doctor if you think you’re ill.
Clean and disinfect frequently touched surfaces at home, work or school, especially when someone is ill.
Get plenty of sleep, be physically active, manage your stress, drink plenty of fluids, and eat nutritious food.
All the more reason for bring a trailer to enjoy continued success bringing fantastic prices eliminating those dreadful auction outfits.
Is it really that much worse than previous flu seasons? I heard a doctor on CNN say that the COVID-19 has probably been with us for sometime but we only recently identified this flu like symptom as COVID-19. Before that it was just considered the flu.
From google:
“While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010”.
“At least 29 million people in the U.S. have experienced flu illnesses this season, the CDC estimates. About 280,000 people have been hospitalized so far, and an estimated 16,000 have died, including 105 children”.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) is not considered the flu. For one thing we have a vaccine for the known flu viruses but most people in the US do not get vaccinated which results in more people getting infected and more deaths.
With an unknown virus spreading so fast and being so deadly, about 2% of the known cases so far have resulted in death, which is about 20 times higher than the flu, this represents an unknown situation with no known solution yet.
I suggest the doctor on CNN was either misunderstood or he made a mistake.
The CDC writes; “A novel coronavirus is a new coronavirus that has not been previously identified. The virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is not the same as the coronaviruses that commonly circulate among humans and cause mild illness, like the common cold.”
I suggest reading more at the CDC web site here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html
I am no doctor but I think what’s happening with these cruise ships is worse than anything I remember, as far as what happens when you put a couple thousand people in one place, don’t let them leave for a week and a few have a virus. So more and more conventions and musical concerts will be cancelled unril we know how it spreads and how big a crowd is “too big?” I even heard traces were found in Grand Central station–how many people pass through there each day?
You’re right on the money Mike. If this epidemic continues, collectors won’t have the $ for these specials cars and they will start amassing collections of scale model cars instead. They won’t need huge garages to store them or a team of mechanics and artisans to repair and restore them. Auto parts companies will close down and all gas stations will become just convenience stores instead. Meals on a Wheels will be delivering to every home in the U.S. for there won’t be anymore restaurants and people would be afraid to go to them. Sports stadiums and arenas will be empty and the baseball, football and hockey seasons will be postponed to a later date when the world is safe.People will just have to entertain themselves with their dvd and cd collections and if they can afford it, Netflix or one of its’ competitors. It just goes on and on. Let’s just hope the Coronavirus epidemic reach its’ peak and then starts to go away after some medical advances. Maybe this terrible occurrence will bring the entire world together and there’ll be peace throughout the world for years to come and no more hate and hunger in addition to cures of all major diseases.
As far as world peace, I’m afraid the Chinese might see this as a convenient way to get rid of that one group they have isolated –Uighurs and other Muslims -and wish would go away.They have many of them in camps .
Countries will see how effective germ warfare is and start to take away money from planes and tanks and missiles and get busy in the lab.
So this might be the “new normal”: every few years another attack. Another thing that will change is automakers farming bits and pieces out to the cheapest supplier without having a backup shop ready to go in the US to make the same part. I bet Jaguar wishes they hadn’t done that, they are having to bring in needed parts one suitcase at a time from China to finish Jags on the line..
Wow! Yes if the virus goes unchecked for 12 months. 1. It’s very contagious, and the CDC doesn’t know how it is transmitted. (2) A cure, or vaccination is at least 12-18 months away. These 2 unknowns are very scary for all Americans.
The World economy will take a big hit but most important to Americans is their home prices will go down 20-40%.
This in itself will cause consumers to spend less, vacation less, socialize less, drive less, etc. Manufacturing will slow down 30-70%. Many will only work part time or not at all. I hope it doesn’t get this bad.
You guys are way too negative! With the jitters in the stock market car enthusiasts may think screw it I’m going to buy my dream collector car.
Byron,You go ahead and buy your dream car at a price that’s more than reasonable due to the seller panicking. Here’s your golden opportunity. Go for it, seize the moment.
I didn’t think of that–here’s where the guys who were never going to get around to it finally see the writing on the wall and bail out. Suddenly a running drivable turn key car will be more important than unupholstered, unpainted cars that need parts because who know how much (or how little) time we have left? To get an idea of the mindset we’re facing, screen the old ’50s movie called On the Beach where there is some catastrophe brewing and they have a sports car race and it’s hell-for-leather because hell we’re gonna die tomorrow anyhow…